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Pathogen evolution in switching environments: A hybrid dynamical system approach

机译:切换环境中的病原体进化:混合动力系统方法

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摘要

We propose a hybrid dynamical system approach to model the evolution of a pathogen that experiences different selective pressures according to a stochastic process. In every environment, the evolution of the pathogen is described by a version of the Fisher-Haldane-Wright equation while the switching between environments follows a Markov jump process. We investigate how the qualitative behavior of a simple single-host deterministic system changes when the stochastic switching process is added. In particular, we study the stability in probability of monomorphic equilibria. We prove that in a "constantly" fluctuating environment, the genotype with the highest mean fitness is asymptotically stable in probability while all others are unstable in probability. However, if the probability of host switching depends on the genotype composition of the population, polymorphism can be stably maintained.
机译:我们提出了一种混合动力系统方法来模拟根据随机过程经历不同选择压力的病原体的进化。在每种环境中,病原体的演化都通过Fisher-Haldane-Wright方程的形式来描述,而环境之间的切换遵循马尔可夫跳跃过程。我们研究了添加随机切换过程后,简单的单主机确定性系统的质性行为如何变化。特别地,我们研究了单态平衡概率的稳定性。我们证明,在“恒定”波动的环境中,具有最高平均适应度的基因型在概率上渐近稳定,而所有其他基因型在概率上都是不稳定的。但是,如果宿主切换的可能性取决于种群的基因型组成,则可以稳定地维持多态性。

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